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Essay / Independent Monetary Policy: Impossible Trinity
One of the most problematic problems in economics is the “Impossible Trinity,” meaning that only two out of three choices can be applicable. These options are called: a fixed exchange rate, free capital mobility and an independent monetary policy as shown in the figure above. That's to say; It is less likely to have 3 options at the same time. A country may apply a fixed exchange rate which automatically allows capital flows due to the operation of an open economy and therefore a country cannot maintain an independent monetary policy. Helene Rey states that the only way to provide independent monetary policy is to have free capital flows, which leads to having a floating exchange rate. According to Hélène Rey, “the global financial cycle transforms the trilemma into a dilemma”. Targeted capital controls, sources of the financial cycle itself through the monetary policy of the Fed and other major central banks, a transmission channel by limiting credit growth and leverage, a transmission channel by Imposing stricter limits on leverage for all financial intermediaries are the most significant solution to this problem. global financial cycle or “dilemma”. As the financial cycle is globalized, capital flows, asset prices and credit growth participate in this cycle. Moreover; this cycle based on certain indicators but before explaining this part I want to say that VIX is an indicator of uncertainty and risk aversion of markets because the financial cycle is directly and positively related to VIX. In general; The VIX, foreign direct investment, and other types of flows have highly correlated relationships. Capital flows are also positively related to the VIX. Also; we can see that portfolio debt increases as credit inflows also increase. Credit flows are ...... middle of paper ...... which is supported by the data in the article. In my opinion ; if I think which one is more realistic, it is quite obvious that "Dilemma" has validity in today's world. In our world; The trilemma cannot be maintained in the real world for some reasons: since the center country determines monetary policy and other countries follow the policy of the center country. Countries must adjust their monetary policies, which is the case for central countries like the United States. Moreover ; Capital controls are a challenge in today's world and can therefore create even more distortions. SO; I disagree with Trilemma in History regarding these ideas. The dilemma framework is more suited to today's world because the United States provides monetary independence and shapes the world's monetary approach. Under these conditions, the “dilemma” is a more sustainable approach in current times..