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Essay / The Black Swan - 603
The book The Black Swan: The Impact of the VERY IMPROBABLE, written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb; presents the idea(s) of the black swan theory. The term black swan theory is a metaphor used to describe an event that surprises and has a major effect. It is assumed that all swans were white, but this is not the case, as there was a rare discovery of black swans in Western Australia in 1697, by a Dutch explorer. Taleb, the author of this book, is also the founder of the black swan theory as he uses his background in philosophy and mathematics to describe chance and uncertainty in society and daily life. According to the black swan theory, unpredictable events are much more common than one would think. History has demonstrated several unpredictable and/or rare events in the past, such as the Great Depression after World War II, which was an indirect effect of the stock market crash known as Black Tuesday. Other Black Swan events include, but are not limited to, HurricaneKatrina, Rita, Sandy; the San Francisco earthquakes of 1906; the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918; world trade in 1993...