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  • Essay / Exploring the function of the SIR model - 1883

    Infectious diseases have had major impacts and influences in human history. Diseases such as the Spanish flu or the bubonic plague occupy remarkable positions in history. Disease spread models are used to predict the consequences of an epidemic. These models are used to calculate the impact of an infectious disease, the funding required for mass vaccinations and data for public health services. The first mathematical model of infectious diseases was created by Daniel Bernoulli in 1766. This model was used to predict the outcome of smallpox inoculation. In the modern world, these models are created using various software programs. The reason why I chose this topic is because I have worked on modeling simulations before. My father also works in the health sector, so this subject seemed very fascinating to me. Predicting the consequences of infectious epidemics can save thousands of lives and millions of dollars. In the healthcare industry, accuracy and reliability are very important. In this project, the working function of the SIR epidemic model and some of its derivatives will be explored as well as some theorems about these models. The SIR model is the fundamental model of almost all modern epidemic models. The SIR model is the most widely used disease spread model in the world. It is also a simple epidemic model whose mathematics corresponds to our class. SIR model The model is created by WO Kermack and AG McKendrick in 1927. The SIR model has three compartments: susceptible, infected and eliminated. S: denotes the number of individuals who are not infected with the disease. These people are vulnerable to illness. I: represents the number of individuals who have been infected. These people can transmit the disease middle of paper......if we use any of these three models for malaria, the predictions would be incorrect. Malaria cannot be transmitted by air or water, it is transmitted either by mosquitoes or by the blood of an infectious individual. The main mathematical concept behind SIR models are differential equations. Graphics are created by computer programs using mathematical algorithms. The last model I explained is the most accurate model of these three models. However, there are also some points missing, for example the disease mortality rate is not included but it is a very important parameter. To improve the SIR model and its successors, the help of doctors and health specialists is necessary. Creating an epidemic model requires synergy between programmers, mathematicians and health professionals. However, creating an accurate model requires financial support and diligent experts..