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Essay / flood forecasting - 1190
ANNs have been used as simplified black-box models in several water resources problems. Black box flood forecasting models can be thought of as model maps for input-output data sets. The multilayer perceptron (MLP) network (Rumelhart et at., 1986) is typically used for model mapping problems and includes the input layer, one or more hidden layers of computational nodes (neurons), and a layer of output of compute nodes. In a feedforward structure, data only flows in one direction. A neuron in a particular layer receives all the inputs from the previous layer and passes the values to subsequent layers of the processing element. The schematic representation of the feedforward MLP network designed according to the Muskingum equation (equation 4) is shown in Figure 1. It has an input layer, a hidden layer, and an output layer, respectively. Each node of a layer is connected to all the nodes of the successive layer and the neurons of the same layer are not connected to each other. The data transferred from one neuron to another via the connections is controlled by the weights. The sum of the product of the inputs (x) and their weights (w) minus the bias (b) leads to a net as follows: net = ∑▒〖x_i .w_i〗 - b (12)Then, the output of a neuron, f(net) is decided by an activation function which determines a response of the node to the input signal it receives. In order to generate an output vector, a training (learning) process is used to find optimal weight matrices and bias vectors that minimize a predetermined error function (E) which is the given error sum of squares as follows. E = ∑_(p =1 )^p▒∑_(i=1)^N▒〖 (y_i-t_i)〗^2 (13)Here, ti and yi represent the target (observed flow, O_(t+∆ t)) and the outlet (the expected flow... middle of paper ...... to its important role in the country's social economy. Severe flooding hits the Chindwin Basin every year at one location or another due to high rainfall intensities during the southwest monsoon Since 1965, flooding in the Chindwin basin has been highest in July and August, contributing to 72% of the total floods in the basin. In this study, the floods reported at two hydrometric stations, namely Homalin and Mawlaik, were taken into account. The length of the stretch from upstream (Homalin) to downstream (Mawlaik) is 114 km. topography of the basin, the slope of the reach is about 0.0003, which is relatively gentle. A flood wave is subject to translational and reservoir actions as it passes through natural rivers and the hydrological methods are correctly. used in the case where the action of the reservoir dominates the action of translation for gently sloping rivers (Das, 2009).