Representational bias is where individuals compare the similarity of a current situation to previous situations and evaluate the likelihood of potential consequences. The more similar the situations, the more likely the consequences and their impacts are to be similar. As Able Archer was a routine operation, American analysts believed the Soviets would continue with their usual response of only monitoring the operation. However, this was clearly not the case due to the depth of Soviet fear, and even when presented with evidence that the Soviets were preparing their air forces, the Reagan administration rejected the response. While U.S. officials believed that Soviet perceptions, intentions, and actions during previous Able Archer exercises were the same as during the 1983 operation, and that the results would also be the same, U.S. intelligence fell for into the trap of representational bias and failed to correctly interpret intelligence products highlighting the danger of the new